AI could replace 300 million full-time jobs, says Goldman Sachs. This means a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe might change. It shows how big the impact of AI automation will be on the global workforce.
AI has brought new jobs and made workers more productive. But, it has also had a downside. Since 2000, many manufacturing jobs have been lost — 1.7 million of them. Now, white-collar jobs are also at risk of being automated.
Experts have different opinions on AI’s impact. Some think it’s “quite stupid,” while others call it “wildly overhyped.” But, most agree that AI is replacing jobs, but not as fast as some think.
Key Takeaways
- AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs, affecting a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe.
- By 2030, two-thirds of jobs in the U.S. and Europe are predicted to be exposed to some degree of AI automation.
- At least 14% of global employees may need to change careers by 2030 due to digitization, robotics, and AI advancements.
- AI could replace up to two million manufacturing workers by 2025, according to a report by MIT and Boston University.
- Educated white-collar workers earning up to $80,000 a year are most likely to be affected by workforce automation.
Impact of AI on Jobs
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing the job market a lot in the next few years. The World Economic Forum’s “The Future of Jobs Report 2020” says AI might replace 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025. But, it will also create 97 million new jobs, showing how complex the job scene is becoming.
Jobs AI Will Replace
Some jobs that might be taken over by AI include:
- Customer service representatives
- Receptionists
- Accountants and bookkeepers
- Salespeople
- Research analysts
- Paralegals
- Factory and warehouse workers
- Financial traders
- Travel advisors
- Content writers
How fast and how much AI will be used at work depends on things like how possible it is, cost, and how the job market changes. Companies are now training their workers to work with AI and adjust to the new job world.
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Jobs targeted by AI worldwide | Around 300 million, or 9.1% of all jobs globally |
| U.S. workforce expressing concerns about AI replacing their jobs | 24% |
| Skills likely to face disruption within the next five years | 44% |
The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report looked at 803 companies with 11.3 million employees. It covered 27 industries and 45 economies to see how AI affects jobs. The report found that over 85% of companies see big data, cloud computing, and AI as key to their growth.
As AI, chatbots, and other new technologies keep changing the workforce, companies need to adapt quickly. They must get their employees ready for the future changes.
Jobs Unlikely to be Replaced by AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) is set to automate many jobs across different fields. Yet, some jobs are less likely to be taken over by machines. These jobs need skills and abilities that AI can’t match yet.
Jobs that need emotional intelligence, creativity, and ethical decision-making are hard for AI to replace. Teachers, social workers, therapists, and counselors work on building relationships and understanding people’s needs. AI still can’t fully do these things.
Jobs that need complex problem-solving, pattern recognition, and scientific research are tough for AI. Professions like doctors, scientists, and engineers require human intuition, curiosity, and innovative thinking. These are things AI hasn’t mastered yet.
Jobs that require hands-on skills, adaptability, and working in unpredictable settings are less likely to be automated. Skilled tradespeople, technicians, and caregivers need dexterity and quick thinking. Current AI can’t match these skills.
Leadership roles, like managers, directors, and CEOs, need strategic thinking, motivational skills, and ethical judgment. AI finds it hard to replicate these qualities. These jobs require understanding human behavior and navigating complex social situations, which AI struggles with.
AI’s impact on jobs is clear, with up to 70% of workloads at risk of automation. But, some jobs won’t be fully replaced by AI soon. These “human-centric” roles need social, creative, and cognitive skills. They will keep being in demand as companies use humans and AI together to innovate and boost productivity.
| Occupations Less Susceptible to AI Replacement | Key Skills and Attributes |
|---|---|
| Teachers, Therapists, and Social Workers | Emotional intelligence, empathy, relationship-building |
| Doctors, Scientists, and Engineers | Complex problem-solving, pattern recognition, innovation |
| Skilled Tradespeople and Caregivers | Hands-on skills, adaptability, working in unpredictable environments |
| Managers, Directors, and CEOs | Strategic thinking, motivational skills, ethical judgment |
As AI gets better, the unique skills and abilities of humans in these jobs will keep them safe from automation. Companies need to use the strengths of humans and AI together. This will help drive innovation, productivity, and improve society.
Benefits of AI in the Workplace
AI might make some jobs obsolete, but it brings big wins for companies and workers who use it. It’s great at doing boring, repetitive tasks, letting people focus on harder, more interesting work. Sean Chou, from an AI startup, says, “There’s worry that AI will replace workers or tasks, and it’s true.” But AI doing the easy stuff means people can do better, more enjoyable work. This could make them more productive and happy at their jobs.
More Focused and Engaging Tasks
AI helps workers by taking over simple, boring tasks. This lets people work on harder, more creative tasks that need thinking and solving skills. Goldman Sachs says 300 million full-time jobs could be replaced by AI. This change could make workers happier and their jobs more rewarding.
AI also gives companies better insights and helps them make smarter decisions. About 40 percent of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI, and in rich countries, it could be 60 percent. Using AI, companies can work better, be more productive, and help their workers focus on important tasks that grow the business.
AI does more than just automate tasks. It helps new workers get better faster by offering real-time advice and support. This makes the workforce more skilled and ready to solve tough problems and innovate.
“There’s always a concern that technology is displacing this current body of workers or tasks, and that’s true. However, by taking over mundane activities, AI can free up employees to engage in more focused and rewarding work, potentially boosting productivity and job satisfaction.”
As AI grows in the workplace, companies that use it well will do great in the future. By seeing the good in AI, like how AI improves productivity and AI freeing up human labor, companies can get more efficient, innovative, and happy employees.
Rising Incomes and Consumption Driving Job Growth
One way new jobs might be created by 2030 is through rising incomes and spending, especially in new markets. The McKinsey Global Institute says global spending could jump by $23 trillion from 2015 to 2030. Most of this growth will come from the growing middle class in new markets.
This increase in spending will likely lead to 250 million to 280 million new jobs in making consumer goods. Another 50 million to 85 million jobs could come from more spending on health and education.
In emerging markets, a growing middle class is boosting demand for many products and services. This economic growth creating new jobs in these markets will lead to a lot of consumption-driven job creation chances. Jobs will pop up in industries like manufacturing, retail, healthcare, and education.
The growth of emerging markets job opportunities isn’t just about making goods for consumers. As people earn more, they want higher-skilled services too. This means more jobs in finance, professional services, and tech.
| Industry | Estimated New Jobs (in millions) |
|---|---|
| Consumer Goods Production | 250 – 280 |
| Health and Education | 50 – 85 |
The chance for economic growth creating new jobs and consumption-driven job creation in emerging markets looks good. It could help balance out job losses from tech changes like automation and AI. As leaders plan for the future, knowing how rising incomes and spending drive job growth is key.
when will ai replace jobs
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked worries about its impact on jobs. As AI gets better, people are talking more about when it might replace jobs. We’ll look into the latest on how and when AI could change different jobs and industries.
A McKinsey Global Institute report says almost zero to 30 percent of work hours could be automated by 2030. This depends on how fast people adopt AI. They use the middle point, which means 15 percent of current tasks could be automated. Jobs that involve physical tasks, collecting data, and processing data are most likely to be automated.
“In theory, Google found that it would hire ChatGPT as an entry-level coder if it interviewed at the company.”
But the report also says automation might not always mean fewer jobs. Workers might just do different tasks. This shows the timeline for ai job replacement is complex. We need to understand the forecasts for ai automation and its effects on the ai disruption of labor market.
Jobs like data entry, customer service, manufacturing, and retail checkouts might see AI’s impact first. AI can handle lots of customer queries and complaints, making some call center jobs less needed. Robots with AI are also better at tasks like putting together products and packaging, which could cut down on jobs in manufacturing.
The timeline for ai job replacement is still unclear. But AI’s impact is clear. Employers and those making policies need to work on strategies that use AI’s benefits without hurting jobs too much. Keeping an eye on AI, developing new skills, and planning for changes will help us deal with the ai disruption of labor market. This way, we can make sure the future of work is strong and adaptable.
Aging Populations Driving Healthcare Job Growth
The aging of the global population will lead to more job opportunities in the future. By 2030, we’ll see at least 300 million more people over 65 than in 2014. As people get older, they spend more on healthcare and personal services.
The McKinsey Global Institute predicts 50 million to 85 million new jobs in healthcare by 2030. These jobs will include doctors, nurses, health technicians, and others. This increase in healthcare needs will greatly affect aging population impact on jobs and healthcare job growth.
More people want caregiving services due to a growing older population, more chronic diseases, and a push for personalized healthcare. As the world ages, the need for skilled healthcare workers will grow. This is a big chance for job seekers and the healthcare field.
“By 2030, there will be at least 300 million more people aged 65 years and older than there were in 2014.”
The healthcare industry is set to grow a lot in the next few years because of the aging population and more healthcare needs. This is good news for those looking for healthcare job growth and the economy.
To meet healthcare demands, the industry must change and innovate. This could mean more technology use, like telemedicine, to make care better and more efficient. Also, the industry needs a skilled and diverse workforce to serve an aging population’s unique needs.
The aging of the world’s population will greatly affect the job market, especially in healthcare. With more healthcare needs, the industry must tackle the challenges and chances this shift brings.
Technology Development and Deployment
The tech industry has seen a big jump in job growth lately. This trend is likely to keep going as new tech comes out and gets used in more areas. Experts say that by 2030, new tech could lead to 20 million to 50 million new jobs worldwide.
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, tech spending could go up by more than 50 percent from 2015 to 2030. Half of this increase will be on IT services. This means more jobs will be needed in tech development and deployment. Jobs like IT professionals, software engineers, data analysts, and tech specialists will be in demand.
New Job Opportunities
New tech like AI, machine learning, and cloud computing is opening up new job chances. For example, Netflix was looking for an AI product manager with a salary up to $900,000 in July. This shows how much companies want skilled people in AI.
A report from Gartner says the IT workforce is checking out and testing AI solutions this year. They plan to use these technologies more in 2024. Companies are also training their workers to keep up with these changes.
Some jobs might get automated, but skills like communication, teamwork, and leadership are still key for IT workers with AI. Experts believe AI won’t replace humans anytime soon. Instead, it will help make human work better.
The tech industry is always changing, bringing new job chances in IT services and tech development. By learning new skills and adjusting to these changes, tech professionals can stay ahead. They can look forward to more job growth in the future.
Infrastructure and Building Investments
Investing in infrastructure and buildings can create a lot of new jobs. If we fix infrastructure gaps and solve housing shortages, we could see up to 80 million new jobs. With faster investment, this number could jump to 200 million jobs.
These jobs will be in many fields. You’ll see more work for architects, engineers, electricians, carpenters, and construction workers. As our economy and population grow, we’ll need better infrastructure and more homes.
Infrastructure job creation and construction job growth are vital for a thriving economy, as building investment can have a significant impact on employment levels.
Driving Job Opportunities through Infrastructure and Building Investments
- Addressing infrastructure gaps: Investing in things like roads, energy systems, and communication networks can create millions of new jobs.
- Overcoming housing shortages: Building more homes and apartments will create jobs for builders, plumbers, electricians, and others.
- Modernizing public facilities: Upgrading schools, hospitals, and government buildings will lead to more jobs in construction and renovation.
- Expanding commercial real estate: Building new office spaces, retail areas, and other commercial properties will increase the need for architects, project managers, and construction workers.
| Scenario | Job Creation Potential |
|---|---|
| Trendline | Up to 80 million new jobs |
| Step-up (Accelerated Investment) | Up to 200 million additional jobs |
By investing in infrastructure and building projects, we can create many construction and engineering jobs. This helps the economy grow and improves life for communities.
Renewable Energy and Climate Adaptation
The move to renewable energy and adapting to climate change is opening up many new job opportunities. Investing in renewable energy and making things more energy-efficient is expected to create a lot of new jobs soon.
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, these investments could lead to up to 10 million new jobs worldwide. This is in the trendline scenario. In the step-up scenario, where there are bigger investments, up to 10 million more jobs could be added. The clean energy sector is expected to grow by almost 50% from 2020 to 2030. This means it will go from 430,500 jobs to 639,200 jobs, as Clean Energy Canada reports.
In the United States, the shift to green energy could create 30 million jobs in clean energy, efficiency, and low-emissions technologies by 2030. This is what the World Economic Forum (WEF) Future of Jobs Report says. Also, since August 2022, about 142,000 new clean energy jobs have been made for electricians, mechanics, construction workers, and others, as Climate Power notes.
The energy efficiency sector is a big job creator. It’s the most affordable and quickest way to get more energy for decades. Our electrical grid often works at less than half its capacity. This means there’s a lot of room to save energy and cut down on carbon emissions with technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). AI can make our energy use better by optimizing when and how we use energy.
But, moving to renewable energy and adapting to climate change also brings challenges. Jobs in fossil fuels, which employed nearly 1.7 million people in 2019, are mainly in certain areas. These areas might see big changes as the economy moves to cleaner energy sources.
But, there’s hope. Places that are big on fossil fuel jobs could also be great for renewable energy, like wind and solar. An analysis found that a quarter of U.S. counties with the best potential for wind and solar power are also big on fossil fuel jobs. This means these areas could see job changes and economic growth.
The move to a greener future is very promising for green jobs growth, climate change mitigation employment, and energy efficiency job creation. By using the skills and infrastructure of old fossil fuel areas, communities can adapt and do well in the new energy world. This will help the economy and the environment.
Marketization of Unpaid Domestic Work
AI and automation are changing the job world. They might make us pay for services that replace unpaid work usually done at home. This change, called “marketization,” is big in rich countries. It could get more women to work outside the home.
A study by the McKinsey Global Institute says this change could make 50 million to 90 million new jobs. These jobs would be in things like childcare, early-childhood education, cleaning, cooking, and gardening. The study says 39% of home work could be automated in ten years, based on what 65 AI experts think.
Japanese men were more worried about automation in the home than others. The study also found that housework is seen as easier to automate (44%) than care work (28%). People in the UK aged 15 to 64 spend about 43% of their time on unpaid home work.
Turning unpaid home work into paid jobs is not new. Using new appliances in the 1920s-2000s cut down the time spent on tasks like cooking and cleaning. Now, AI tech for kids’ learning and AI helping with care for the elderly at home shows this trend will keep going.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Predicted Automatable Domestic Work | 39% |
| Perceived Automation Potential of Housework | 44% |
| Perceived Automation Potential of Care Work | 28% |
| Time Spent on Unpaid Domestic Work (UK) | 43% |
The marketization of unpaid domestic work is changing the job scene. It could lead to more job opportunities in paid domestic services. This shift could also change the future of work and the economy a lot.
“Service robots for domestic household tasks” have become the most widely produced and sold robots in the world.
Conclusion
AI’s effect on jobs and the future of work is complex. It may take over some tasks and replace jobs, but it can also create new ones. This change will need a big effort from governments, companies, and people to make the shift smooth.
By 2030, 400 million to 800 million people might lose their jobs due to automation. About 75 million to 375 million could need to change their job type and learn new skills. This shows why it’s crucial to invest in education and training to prepare workers for AI and automation.
But, the future isn’t all about challenges. AI will bring new job opportunities like data scientists, machine learning engineers, and AI developers. Industries like healthcare, transportation, marketing, and finance will also see growth thanks to AI. By accepting these changes, everyone can move forward with confidence in the changing job landscape.
FAQ
When will AI replace jobs?
AI might replace 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025, says the World Economic Forum. But, it could also create 97 million new jobs. How fast and how much AI will change jobs depends on many things like cost, job market, and how people accept it.
What jobs are most likely to be replaced by AI?
AI might replace jobs like customer service reps, receptionists, and accountants. Salespeople, research analysts, and paralegals could also see changes. Factory workers, financial traders, travel advisors, and content writers might also face job shifts.
What jobs are unlikely to be replaced by AI?
Jobs like teaching, law, and management are less likely to be taken over by AI soon. These roles need human skills like feeling emotions, being creative, and solving complex problems. AI isn’t yet good at these things.
What are the benefits of AI in the workplace?
AI can automate boring tasks, letting people do more interesting work. This could make people happier and more productive at their jobs.
How will rising incomes and consumption impact job growth?
As people earn more and buy more, new jobs will be created. This could be up to 280 million jobs in making goods for consumers. More spending on health and education could add another 50 million to 85 million jobs.
What is the timeline for AI replacing jobs?
By 2030, almost 15 percent of work hours could be automated, says the McKinsey Global Institute. This depends on how fast AI is adopted. The exact number could be between zero and 30 percent.
How will aging populations impact job growth?
As people live longer, there will be more need for healthcare and personal services. This could lead to 50 million to 85 million new jobs in healthcare by 2030, says the McKinsey Global Institute.
What new job opportunities will technology development and deployment create?
Spending on technology could go up by more than 50 percent by 2030. This could lead to 20 million to 50 million new jobs, mostly in tech-related fields.
How will investments in infrastructure and buildings impact job growth?
Investing in buildings and infrastructure could create 80 million new jobs by 2030. In a faster investment scenario, up to 200 million jobs could be added. These jobs would be for skilled workers like architects and electricians.
How will investments in renewable energy and climate adaptation impact job growth?
Putting money into renewable energy and adapting to climate change could create 10 million new jobs by 2030. With more investment, up to 20 million jobs could be added globally.
How will the marketization of unpaid domestic work impact job growth?
Paying for work like childcare and cleaning could create 50 million to 90 million new jobs. This would happen as more women join the workforce.